Wormhole Atlas

With all the data collected from Sanctified Vidette, I have completed the wormhole map. It can be downloaded from this galnet link (large size to zoom and scroll) or viewed right here:

When you encounter a wormhole, you can view it more closely using the "look at" command on the neocom, and rotate the view about. For wormholes leading back to the known systems and regions of our cluster, you will see a distorted and upside-down picture of the sky in the destination system. Even though it is distorted, it is usually possible to discern images of some of the twelve main nebulae in our cluster.

Once you learn to distinguish the nebulae, you can figure out to which region the wormhole leads without having to jump through. For example, take a look at this wormhole:

It sports the Vapor Sea nebula and the Cauldron. In the chart above, you can identify four regions that show just those two nebulae if you zoom in on the chart: 

The relative size of the visible nebulae matters: in Kor-Azor, the Cauldron dominates, while from Querious the Cauldron is tiny. The only region where they are both medium-sized is Khanid. That is the region to which this wormhole will lead. The thickness of the lines in the chart and the example pictures shown of the wormholes will help you identifying the destination.

Some regions are particularly hard to distinguish, like Tenal and Venal, or Paragon Soul and Period Basis. But those are usually regions with relatively few star systems, close to each other at the edge of the map. 

I will probably use this as a reference from time to time, so here I include links to some other resources that can be useful to the explorer: explainer on scan probe strength and pinpointing, wormhole spawn mechanics, some scanning tips, and of course a brief (lore) history of Anoikis.

Theological Seminary

I noticed a message from Cardinal Kahar Dex on the galnet forums. The cardinal's see is in Providence, where the Curatores Veritates Alliance is projecting the Empire's power. I think his cathedra used to be in X6AB-Y, the Providence Monastery Cathedral. That information may be outdated, given the tumultuous history of the Curatores during the last couple of years.

In this letter, Cardinal Dex remarks that many who serve the Curatores in Providence wish to deepen their faith. It is a phenomenon not unknown to LUMEN! In the Societas, one of the major corporations in the alliance, we welcome capsuleers from all parts of the cluster as long as they abide by the laws of the Empire and are willing to assist us in our service the the Empress. There is no requirement that they have had a religious upbringing. 

Of course, during the course of their work with us, many get to know our faith and start they journey to join the faithful. We call those peregrinans, wanderers. I help them on their journey and for some, it results in conversion. 

I work case by case, but it seems that in the past Cardinal Dex has worked out a curriculum, and taught it at a theological seminary. Now that CVA has re-taken the marches of Providence from the barbarians, he plans to re-establish the Providence Theological Seminary. That seems to me a great opportunity, also for our peregrinans, to follow specific courses and work towards specific goals. I would be happy to learn more about it, and I wonder if my amateur-expertise in capsuleer conversions can be useful to the Seminary.

I have sent a letter to his eminence Cardinal Dex, inviting him to our humble chapel and library to discuss these matters.

Jubilee gifts

Now that I am back in the quiet sanctuary for the mind that is our library, I have completed the wormholes-and-clouds atlas. 

My commission allows me to re-use the data and images that I gathered for my own projects. I have decided to turn this into a commemorative piece for the Empress' jubilee. Rather than a panegyric reviewing all the great deeds of our blessed Empress during the ten years of her reign, I can focus on the particular achievement of the conquest of Vidette.

Like many other Amarrians, I will send in a gift to the Emperor Family Academy. They collect all these gifts, going from school children's drawings over simple produce by humble farmers to poems by writers and to lavishly gilded treasures gifted by noble Holders. Every year people honor the Empress in a way that suits their station, but this year is special as it is a jubilee.

The grand celebration is set for the anniversary of Her ascension to the Throne, September 27th. So, I will be well in time - a nice change for someone with an innate tendency to treat a deadline as a motivation to get started.

Outsourcing

To my surprise the State will relinquish control of the day-to-day running and safeguarding of the trade hub of Jita to third parties, Concord and Evermore. 

That just shows how much outsourcing has become dogma in some corporate circles. 

It is rarely a good way to save ISK - perhaps it looks like that at first, but in the end I think it often turns out either more expensive, or less qualitative. And with Evermore involved, it looks as if some jobs of system management will go to artificial intelligence. 

Trade consulates will be opened. The post of consul will be important, and no doubt many vie for the honor. It might have gone to House Kor-Azor, given their tradition of diplomacy. But in the end it went to House Tash-Murkon, which is a wise decision given their long mercantile tradition. The republic too is sending some clan elders from the Sebiestor tribe. 

But here comes the second surprise. The Federation is not sending any career diplomat or government legate. They will be represented by... the Quafe company! I think will never understand democracy. 

Well, it is not unprecedented. Some thirty-odd years ago, Quafe representatives negotiated a deal between the Empire and the Federation, to resolve a clash that we had over the Girani-Fa system. Back then, we trusted the Quafe company because Amarr is the largest consumer market among the four core empires, so Quafe has a real interest in fostering good relations between the Empire and the Federation. 

Fun with statistics

Previously, dr. Fritte Cornelius and I made observations that confirmed that the wormholes of Sanctified Vidette spawn according to a uniform distribution drawn from all Jove observatory systems. The research was written up in a research report.

But that observation is perhaps no longer true after the changes, since capsuleers have to trigger the wormhole appearance. Hence the uniform distribution can be distorted by capsuleers' behavior, which may differ from region to region. I set out to do the analysis again - with a more limited amount of data.

Nevertheless, over my recent observations in Sanctified Vidette, I have catalogued 275 wormholes (mostly before 22:00 New Eden standard time, and during the second half April). The observed numbers of highsec, lowsec and nullsec holes, and the expected values based on the uniform distribution are listed below:

Nullsec:    observed = 189, expected = 175
Lowsec:    observed = 46, expected = 45
Highsec:    observed = 40, expected = 55

The number of nullsec holes is somewhat high, but still quite within what you would expect to see by chance. The number of lowsec holes is perfectly ordinary and in line with expectations. But the number of highsec holes is indeed significantly lower! The overall observed distribution does seem to deviate from what existed before [1].

From this, I would tentatively conclude that capsuleers in nullsec regions are a little bit more likely than average to breach wormholes to Sanctified Vidette, perhaps to look for bridges to the Empire worlds. The denizens of highsec, however, are quite more risk-averse than average and tend to jump less into unidentified wormholes [2]. 

Perhaps this is not all to surprising, but it is still nice to see it reflected in the data. And with more data, this can be refined to statistics for smaller regions, and allow to detect movement of troops or material by groups using the Drifter wormholes. The Imperial Navy will be pleased to hear this.

Today's footnotes are for the statistics afficionados:

[1] Statistical note: using a multinomial model (with probabilities 0.63618, 0.16261 and 0.20058 for null, low, and highsec) the p-value for an outcome this far or farther from the model is still p=0.10 (chi-square of 4.6, with 2 degrees of freedom). While this indicates that the outcome is unusual, the deviation may not yet be confidently called significant.

[2] Also this can be quantified, using Bayesian inference. Let's say I am looking for the conditional probability P(breach|HS) that a Drifter wormhole is breached by capsuleers, given that it is in highsec. The number I observe in Vidette gives me the probability P(HS|breach) that a Drifter wormhole originated in highsec, given that it was already breached (otherwise it would not have appeared in Vidette). Bayesian inference then tells me:

P(breach|HS) = P(HS|breach) . P(breach)/P(HS)

Here, P(HS)=0.20, the probability of that a Jove observatory system is in highsec, and P(breach) is the probability that any Drifter hole is breached, estimated as the average number of wormholes in Vidette divided by the maximum - here I take it 40/60 based on observation (obviously the result just scales with this value). Following the Bayesian inference formula above, the outcome for highsec, lowsec and nullsec are:

P(breach|HS) = 0.48
P(breach|LS) = 0.69
P(breach|NS) = 0.72

These are the estimated probabilities that a capsuleer has breached a Drifter wormhole (by 22:00 NEST), per region. 

Blessing of a private chapel

Yesterday, I was called upon to bless a shrine. In order to be recognized as a holy place where also visitors can come to pray, private shrines need to be blessed by a member of the clergy. It is a part of the ministry that I do not get to do very often, and that makes it extra nice. 

Noble Houses or guilds or even rich commoners try to have their own side-altar in a cathedral, or their own shrine or chapel in their home. Sadly, cathedral side-altars become status symbol sometimes, a way to show off wealth or power. Major cathedrals become very crowded with these family or guild altars, and often there are multiple services going on at the same time. Before the invention of portable sound dampening fields, our cathedrals were as noisy as a Jita pachinko game hall.

Private shrines at home are more quiet (although they too can be used to brag by displaying precious relics or artwork). The shrine I had the pleasure to bless was clearly not to brag, but built for devotion. It is dedicated to Saint (and emperor) Amash-Akura, and I brought an old copy of Epitoth as a gift. The shrine sports the color of a noble House, but apart from that its main decoration is a tasteful bust of Amash-Akura. 

I have promised to keep the name of the builder and owner of the shrine private, but it is a pity really, as this would be a nice place for pilgrims to visit.

((ooc attribution: church interior, painting by Marten van Valckenborch, active period 1599-1612. Major cathedrals in north-west Europe could house well over 50 private altars, all holding at least one mass per week, so it could get crowded and loud!))

The experiment

So, back to the Cornelian Hypothesis. It states that the reduction in the number of static wormhole signatures in Sanctified Vidette is due to the fact that they are exit holes which since a couple of month ago only spawn when a capsuleer breaches the wormhole from outside Sanctified Vidette.

To test this experimentally took some time. First, I had to find a Jove observatory system. Second, it also needs to have a set of thermoelectric convertors -Drifter-adapted Sleeper technology- primed to the hyperspace signature of Sanctified Vidette rather than another former Drifter wormhole. Thirdly, it has to be in a dormant state, not yet activated.

Finding a suitable set of convertors took a while... but I finally did. I was in communication with the Navy Anchorage in Sanctified Vidette, who record and monitor all wormhole signatures in Sanctified Vidette. When I was ready to create the wormhole K162 in Sanctified Vidette, I gave the signal, and then breached the V928 wormhole - hoping not to be trapped in some hyperspace pocket universe.

It worked. At the moment that I breached the V928 in G-G78S, a new cosmic signature QKB-168 appeared in Sanctified Vidette. The signature was an unidentified wormhole exit, out of which the Indagatrix emerged. A new wormhole was created in Sanctified Vidette. The hypothesis is corroborated!

Like every good research work, this gives rise to follow-up questions. Why do we now have to breach the V928's for the exit to appear, and not before? What turned those into more "regular" wormholes than they were before? How is that linked to the appearance of other hyperspace anomalies?

To that my friends at the Navy Anchorage add "How can we use this for defense purposes?"

Inverted statics

Systems in Anoikis, including the former Drifter wormhole systems, contain so-called "static" wormholes. For our own colony Seclusion, there are two such statics, a B274 and a Z647 type wormhole. Whenever one of the two expires - either because it reaches the end of its lifetime or because more than the critical mass has passed through - a similar type wormhole automatically and immediately appears somewhere else in the system. That is why they are called statics. 

Whenever you visit Seclusion, there will always be a B274 and a Z647 present.

Also Sanctified Vidette and the other Drifter wormholes contain statics. Six regular ones, and sixty "inverted" ones. The inverted ones are very special, and to the best of my knowledge have only been seen in one other place where spacetime has been heavily re-engineered: Pochven.

As I pointed out in yesterday's log entry there is a difference between a wormhole entrance and exit. Wormholes start as an embryonic entrance, and only after a while or when breached, the exit will appear and the tunnel will be present. Now, usual statics are always entrances. They appear immediately in the probe scan window. So, when a static wormhole expires, the new one becomes visible for you to scan down immediately afterwards.

Inverted statics such as Sanctified Vidette's V928 spawn outside Sanctified Vidette. It is their exit, or K162 hole, that will be inside Sanctified Vidette. That is the inverse from usual statics.

Up till very recently the V928 holes were immediately breached by Drifters or by the thermoelectric convertor's particle beams, so the exit K162 hole immediately appeared in Sanctified Vidette. The system always contained the 60 exits except for very short times between a vanishing and respawning.

That changed around the time spacetime rifts and phased asteroid fields started to appear in New Eden, and I witnessed moments when there were much less than 60 wormhole signatures.

The hypothesis that dr. Cornelius suggested is as brilliant as it is straightforward: for an unknown reason, since a month or two the V928 now have to be scanned down and breached before the K162 appears in Sanctified Vidette. There are still always 60 statics, but since they are inverted and it now takes time (and capsuleers) to breach them, there are often less than 60 K162 signatures.

This hypothesis needed experimental proof.

Wormhole birth

To the casual traveller, a wormhole is just a tunnel between two patches of space. Both sides of the tunnel look the same.

However, like a ski resort full of girls hunting for husbands, and husbands hunting for girls, the situation is not as symmetrical as it seems.

During their formation, wormholes are directional. One side is the "entrance" and the other is termed the "exit". When they are fully formed these two ends behave the same for all practical purposes, but we keep the distinction in their labeling. The exit is always labeled "K162". The entrance can have many names, for example "B274", for our highsec static in Seclusion. You find this in the info panel for the wormhole:

The entrance label allows you to identify the type of wormhole, and get a lot of information on it. 

So, how do wormholes form? Well, first the entrance appears as a cosmic signature on your probe scan window. At that point, the K162 exit has not yet formed - there is no exit hole yet. There is only the embryonic entrance hole.

Our warp engines perturb the embryonic wormhole. If you warp to the cosmic signature then even if you do not enter, a spacetime link is created to the destination system. However, the wormhole exit is not visible yet in that system. As the link ages, there is a certain probability per unit time for it to become visible, even if you leave it alone.

Now, if you enter the nascent wormhole, and you are the first one to go through the wormhole, then at that particular moment, the exit hole will spawn visibly in the destination system. Folks there see a new signature pop up on their probe scan window at that point. That is why wormholers get really nervous when a new signature appears. It could be something that appears spontaneously - or it could be someone from another system who just breached a new wormhole and landed in your system.

I have found a diagram to explain wormhole spawn mechanics, on the galnet forums, and I am including it here for completeness' sake:

It looks complicated, but the main message is: the exit may not be visible unless someone came through, or the wormhole is already aged.

((ooc: the witty quote about the ski resort is not mine, but I did not find it back and do not know who to attribute it to...))

Good news

The alarming news from Syndicate aside, I have two pieces of great news.

The first one is that the experiment succeeded! 

As I prepared the return from Curse, following TES Valenia's reassignment due to the war, I convinced my escort to allow me to scan one more time for a suitable set of thermoelectric convertor field projectors out in space. Our way back took us anyway along several Jove observatory systems.

I did not have much confidence that we would find anything, since I have not had any success the entire week. But today turned out different! In G-G78S, among the many signatures, there was a pristine set of convertors. 

There were some pilots in system that would make the operation dangerous, were it not that they were blue, to my surprise. Three I-BLU pilots, out here in Curse. I wonder what they are doing here, but I was too excited by my find and to eager to do the planned experiment so I did not disturb them for a chat. 

I got to work, and managed to get the Sleeper projectors to work and to stabilize a wormhole connection. TES Valenia had me targeted the entire time, and was getting nervous, already regretting having consented to this ultimate attempt. I could perform the experiment and confirm the hypothesis! I am too excited right now to sort out my notes and tabulate measurements and write it all up, but will do so shortly.

The second piece of good news is that we will soon have another conversion ceremony. 

Ms. Yubari has made great progress and I think she is ready! We have many pilots among the various corporations in LUMEN that are not of the faith, but from time to time, as they get more acquainted with the faith, they decide to convert. It is always a source of great joy and celebration when they do!