I have been gathering data on the wormholes in Sanctified Vidette for a few days now, cloaked and camping inside the system. I am slightly grumpy about the Amarr research station there not letting me dock and rest up - but I assume they will have their reasons.
Camping out in the cold of deep safes, the nomad way of life, does not feel very reassuring to me. Certainly in the absense of a cloaking technician and the rest of the crew, I am worried when I go to sleep. Will all the systems stay running smoothly? Will I wake up here, or in a my medical clone in Gottin's Lamp? Anyway, for now, it went smoothly.
I found that there are 60-66 wormholes present in the system at any given time. Of those, always six lead to other wormhole systems, and all the others are K162 exits of a V928 wormhole leading from the Eve cluster into Sanctified Vidette. The six connections to Anoikis are all entrances, they are static wormhole connections leading to each of the six classes of wormhole systems:
Sanctified Vidette static wormholes
These type of connections are usually observed as originating in class 2 wormhole systems, so there must be some characteristics of class 2 shared by the Sanctified Vidette system.
The other wormholes connect to systems with a Jove observatory. I found that on average,
- 24% lead to highsec systems
- 16% lead to lowsec systems
- 60% lead to nullsec systems
There is quite a spread, day to day, on these numbers, giving a variance of 5% in these numbers. Now, if we look at the distribution of Jove observatory systems in the cluster, we see that 64% are in nullsec, 16% are in lowsec, and 21% are in highsec.
So, to within the error bar, the observed numbers are compatible with the hypothesis that, when one of the V928's expire, a new one pops up, drawn from a uniform probability distribution among all Jove observatory systems.
So, for example, since there are 37 Jove observatory systems in Domain (out of a total of 1026 in all the cluster), the probability to that any given connection leads to Domain is expected to be 37/1026=3.61%. A simple statistics calculation then shows that one needs to scan 19 holes in order to have a 50% probability that at least one of them leads to Domain (or 44 holes to have a 80% probability of at least one going to Domain). The short table below gives these results for some other regions (red indicating that the number is over the 60 connections present, so that it is less likely than 50%, resp. 80% to get a connection to that region at any given time).
Rather than going by region, one could also look at distance from Amarr - there are about 50 Jove systems within 7 jumps from Amarr. To get 80% chance of finding at least one of such connections, a scout will need to scan about half of the wormhole signatures in system. That feels about right with my experience of the last week.
