Fun with statistics

Previously, dr. Fritte Cornelius and I made observations that confirmed that the wormholes of Sanctified Vidette spawn according to a uniform distribution drawn from all Jove observatory systems. The research was written up in a research report.

But that observation is perhaps no longer true after the changes, since capsuleers have to trigger the wormhole appearance. Hence the uniform distribution can be distorted by capsuleers' behavior, which may differ from region to region. I set out to do the analysis again - with a more limited amount of data.

Nevertheless, over my recent observations in Sanctified Vidette, I have catalogued 275 wormholes (mostly before 22:00 New Eden standard time, and during the second half April). The observed numbers of highsec, lowsec and nullsec holes, and the expected values based on the uniform distribution are listed below:

Nullsec:    observed = 189, expected = 175
Lowsec:    observed = 46, expected = 45
Highsec:    observed = 40, expected = 55

The number of nullsec holes is somewhat high, but still quite within what you would expect to see by chance. The number of lowsec holes is perfectly ordinary and in line with expectations. But the number of highsec holes is indeed significantly lower! The overall observed distribution does seem to deviate from what existed before [1].

From this, I would tentatively conclude that capsuleers in nullsec regions are a little bit more likely than average to breach wormholes to Sanctified Vidette, perhaps to look for bridges to the Empire worlds. The denizens of highsec, however, are quite more risk-averse than average and tend to jump less into unidentified wormholes [2]. 

Perhaps this is not all to surprising, but it is still nice to see it reflected in the data. And with more data, this can be refined to statistics for smaller regions, and allow to detect movement of troops or material by groups using the Drifter wormholes. The Imperial Navy will be pleased to hear this.

Today's footnotes are for the statistics afficionados:

[1] Statistical note: using a multinomial model (with probabilities 0.63618, 0.16261 and 0.20058 for null, low, and highsec) the p-value for an outcome this far or farther from the model is still p=0.10 (chi-square of 4.6, with 2 degrees of freedom). While this indicates that the outcome is unusual, the deviation may not yet be confidently called significant.

[2] Also this can be quantified, using Bayesian inference. Let's say I am looking for the conditional probability P(breach|HS) that a Drifter wormhole is breached by capsuleers, given that it is in highsec. The number I observe in Vidette gives me the probability P(HS|breach) that a Drifter wormhole originated in highsec, given that it was already breached (otherwise it would not have appeared in Vidette). Bayesian inference then tells me:

P(breach|HS) = P(HS|breach) . P(breach)/P(HS)

Here, P(HS)=0.20, the probability of that a Jove observatory system is in highsec, and P(breach) is the probability that any Drifter hole is breached, estimated as the average number of wormholes in Vidette divided by the maximum - here I take it 40/60 based on observation (obviously the result just scales with this value). Following the Bayesian inference formula above, the outcome for highsec, lowsec and nullsec are:

P(breach|HS) = 0.48
P(breach|LS) = 0.69
P(breach|NS) = 0.72

These are the estimated probabilities that a capsuleer has breached a Drifter wormhole (by 22:00 NEST), per region. 

A trove of wormhole data

After a week of observations, during which dr. Fritte Cornelius and I worked in shifts to ensure  continuous monitoring of Sanctified Vidette, we have obtained a catalogue of over five hundred surveyed wormholes. Add to this list earlier efforts and other efforts from the Signal Cartel, and the total available for statistical analysis is well over two thousand five hundred wormholes! 

Dr. Cornelius concluded that we had enough data for decent statistics, and I agreed (much to the relief of mr. Damus, my overworked cloak technician). My new friend and Signal cartel scientist is working now on a full report for their scientific division - I hope that this publication will be shared with all in the cluster. 

I think I can already reveal that our earlier hypothesis stands confirmed, now on a much firmer ground. There is no statistically significant deviation corresponding to a preference for a link to one or other Jove observatory system or region. The wormholes in Sanctified Vidette - and the other Drifter systems - spawn exactly as if they are drawn from a uniform distribution within the set of all known-space systems with a Jove observatory. 

I have returned back to our familiar skies of Domain, and docked up the Indagatrix for maintenance and small repairs. After such a long stay camping out in space, it would be imprudent not to get her checked up. 

I will not stay docked up for long, though. Dr. Cornelius invited me to another expedition, somewhat urgently. He seems convinced that something is about to happen in another Drifter wormhole, the Sentinel Military Zone established by EDENCOM. He does not appear at liberty to tell me what he knows, but he mentioned a growing number of spacetime anomalies of a different kind - not wormholes. This may be the source of the rumors that have been in the news. 

Of course, if something does happens in the EDENCOM wormhole because of spacetime experiments with Drifter technology, I would like to document it before the entire universe blames Amarr again as they always do when things go wrong.

Visit to the Nexus

In the quieter moments between gathering data on the wormholes of Sanctified Vidette, I went over to the Amarr station to visit the captured Drifter Nexus. The Amarr station, as you can see below, is still a place for peaceful research, and in contrast to the Republic wormhole, ours is not a military naval base full of warships:

The Nexus still looks as mysterious as it was at first, with all the once scattered beams nicely lined up into a long needle-like structure. At first I thought some antennae at the top were new, but comparing with the older footage it seems they were already there. The scale of the structure continues to amaze me!

Below is an image looking down from the top, through the central tunnel of the needle. The beams are arranged in a concentric layered structure, and you can see down all the way to the far end - the perspective belies its immense length.

The damage from the war against the drifters is still visible on the outside, much as it was at the end of the war. It is of course more important to understand the intricate mechanisms inside the beams than it is to patch up some scratched plating on the outside.

Our scientists are still hard at work. I briefly spoke to some of them on-line (capsuleers can not dock up at the research station) and they were very enthusiast about the new technologies that they find and the things they learn about space-time and the way extra dimensions can be folded up into intricate quantum manifolds and unfolded again. Who knows, perhaps one day we will be able to create our own private pockets of spacetime much like the abyssal space bubbles but then stable!

Wormhole spectra

Wormhole physics - it bridges not only gaps in spacetime, but also gaps between people!

I met up with dr. Fritte Cornelius in Sanctified Vidette. What a pleasure! He greeted me not with distrust, but with the enthusiasm of a fellow scientist meeting someone who is interested in the same somewhat esoteric topics! He was eager to share knowledge, in the fullest trust that we are working towards the common goal of a better understanding of the world around us, not as adversaries but as fellow explorers. The true scientific spirit!

The wormhole experts from the Signal Cartel gather much more data that I, as an amateur, did. I would just record the basic characteristics of the wormhole, and hop from one to the other, and be done. Dr. Cornelius does a much more thorough spectral analysis of the wormhole! He patiently explained techniques and the state-of-the-art methods, and shared some of their software tools and databases. I really felt like a student who for the first time sees how the actual surveying is done, and I learned a lot. 

Despite using Chemal Tech Exploration boosters I am still much slower than he is at doing a full spatiotemporal spectral analysis, but I did manage to upload some valuable data in the joint dataset that we are compiling. That will be fed into the modeling software to extract any changes in the quantum-gravitational spacetime metric across the Drifter wormhole. Meanwhile, I feel like I am getting expert training! 

I have been able before to identify what class of wormhole system a particular connection leads to when it goes to Anoikis. However, for wormholes leading to our own cluster the identification of known space regions has eluded me - apart from the obvious Amarr nebula I am not too familiar with foreign skies. That is starting to change, as I am learning to recognize more and more features of the properties and destination of a wormhole connection at first glance.

We have completed first day of full mapping of Sanctified Vidette, arduous work. I am looking forward to tomorrow!

Stone circles

The worship of large rocks or solitary stones in a landscape goes back to the beginnings of civilization on many worlds. Huge stones or "megaliths" were pulled in an upright position, and this "orthostat" evolved from a landmark to a place of gathering, cult and worship. Often, other megaliths were dragged in from far away, and placed in a stone circle formation.

We have come a long way from megaliths to cathedrals.

Strangely, some alien civilizations seem to have never abandoned the worship of large stones, even in their space age. I think that was the case for the Talocan - they have a certain preference for large "stalagmite" asteroids, such as the one I encountered earlier in one of the Drifter wormholes (not Sanctified Vidette). 

Another notable example is the stalagmite asteroid at the center of the Takmahl labyrinth. Here, I think the Takmahl stumbled on Talocan technologies and found an ancient revered stone, and simply encompassed it into their own cult - everything Talocan so far surpassed their own capabilities that it must have seemed sacral to them. To some extent, this must also have been the case for the Jove and the Drifters - they seem keen on incorporating rectangular monoliths in their structures.

Interestingly, also in Sanctified Vidette there is a (space) stone circle, with a special assembly in the center. It is not a stalagmite asteroid, but two asteroids (a round boulder and elongated rock) that collided and shattered. A cloud of dust and small particles orbits the two, rotating with a period of about one minute. Around these two, a stone circle has clearly been assembled.

There is a wreck of ancient vessel nearby, either an exploration vessel or a cryoship, attesting to the age of this site - I think this predates the occupation of this wormhole by the Drifters. The site itself is not incompatible with other Talocan sites. There are peculiar round indentations on the rocks. These are not impact craters, they suggest erosion by continued contact with some smaller round rock perhaps carried by the cloud of dust. Whatever it was, it has vanished.

There is a blue plasma that connects the dots, and flutters around like a flame. It originates in the round indentation. It is not the glow of Tyranite, and it is light blue rather than Drifter green. The Indagatrix could not identify the nature of this glow or its energy source, the gas or plasma does not match known gas cloud compounds. I tried sampling it, but the emanations stopped when I got close. 

There is still so little we know and understand of deep space - or of the Talocan. I wonder what more wonders Drifter space will reveal!

Escape route

Amarr Navy reports show that the Drifters took massive losses in Sanctified Vidette, but despite this, very few were actually captured. At least, that we are allowed to know. What happened to the occupants of the abandoned stations? How did they escape reclamation? At least some Holders that I know are already inquiring about Drifter slaves...

I think I have found a possible explanation. I located a Drifter station functioning on autopilot. It has two factory units coupled to a powergrid distribution array feeding a ring of thermoelectric convertors. This setup generates a Talocan-type wormhole conduit, visible here in the center of the guard ring:

My guess is that this is one of perhaps several portals that the Drifters used to evacuate their population from Sanctified Vidette. To where it leads is unclear - I found no way to interface with the station or to activate the conduit. I stopped short from entering this station to explore it further, it seems wiser to leave this to the professionals of the Amarr Navy.

Remnants of the Drifter occupation

I am continuing my review of Sanctified Vidette after its reclamation.

Although the Empire secured its presence in Sanctified Vidette, there are still traces of the occupation by the Drifters, places where there structures or outposts stood. Except for the hive, none of these appear actively used. 

Most of the Drifter defenses and stations are thoroughly destroyed. Only useless rubble, such as broken station batteries and destroyed hulls, remain, floating in a swirling debris cloud. An example of this is found near Sanctified Vidette X :

Closer to the inner planets of Sanctified Vidette, I found a Drifter research station, abandoned but still with some traces of powergrid. It appears to have experienced a terrible accident, which has led to a large outgrowth of... well, something. It seems partly serpentine rock, partly organic tendrils enveloping the station as if they will consume it.

The tendrils seem to sprout from the station itself, emerging from various parts of the Drifter habitat.

There is also an abandoned Drifter manufacturing plant nearby - recognisable from it distinct flat-rectangle shaped factory. Also this has suffered a crippling accident:

The clear hint of trouble is the blue gaseous vapors surrounding the factory module in the center of the guard ring with power stations. I have seen such industrial modules before, during the Drifter crisis, and they are not supposed to be venting their atmosphere...  

Nexus Conquered

At the heart of the Drifter's operations there used to be a mysterious construct, consisting of many bar-shaped objects. It was once assembled into an "urchin" configuration, I heard. There are electric discharges between the bars, and some claim the frequency of the lightning had been increasing. Below, you see on the historical image also the beam of a Tekton Tyrannos industrial Drifter ship working on one of the bars:

Now that we have captured Sanctified Vidette, all these bars have been brought to the Amarr Navy base in Sanctified Vidette, and assembled into a long hollow needle-like structure:

The scale, as you can see, is immense. I had been told about this, but wanted to see it with my own eyes. To get an idea of the scale of this megastructure, the picture below shows the Indagatrix emerging from the top of the needle - it is nearly invisibly small, a dot that I have to circle for you to even see it.

Our scientists are investigating this - we still do not quite know its function or capabilities. The bars have been somewhat damaged during the combat operations, as you can see from the scorch marks and cracks on their hull:

The "needle" superstructure is hollow, with a conduit going from the top all the way to the bottom, which can be traversed without any adverse effects:

We can only wonder at what mysteries will this object reveal. May it bring glory to the Empire!

Litter

I made my way to the newest system of the Empire, Sanctified Vidette, via one of the wormhole connections in a system with a Jove observatory - Abai. 

It is good to see the Imperial Navy there in stead of roaming Drifter fleets. But there is still work to do! The Vidette Hive is still active, even if it seems somewhat subdued. I do not know what lies at its center, now that the nexus has been captured. It is not a site that I can explore safely on my own, remnants of the defeated Drifters are still holed up there.

The fury of capsuleer fleets has also died down. I have not seen any other pilot on d-scan anywhere. However, like a horde of thoughtless tourists passing through a natural park, those pilots that participated in the reclamation left behind a lot of litter.

Everywhere you warp around, there are discarded shuttles and corvettes on d-scan. Folks may have used them to help scan down things or go check out some site or keep an eye around, and then just left them. Or perhaps they kept them in space just in case they needed to reship and get out after losing their main vessel. Whatever the reason, dumping space junk around orbit of planets, even shattered ones, is cultivating a bad habit. 

Cleanup seems to have started. Around Sanctified Vidette IX the space junk has been cleared out. So, either scavengers or the Imperial Navy itself are taking care of removing the litter. 

labyrinths

In the forums of the intergalactic summit (an inter-empire talking shop), prof.dr. Valate asked pertinent questions about the Drifter labyrinths. I can see where she is going with this: she is wondering if there is any similarity to the famous Takmahl labyrinth.

The question piqued my curiosity, so I analysed data from our LUMEN fleets, looking at several operations onder the command of governor Evelyn Arnoux or Ms. Tather Borg. This allows me to unequivocally confirm that the Drifter and Takmahl labyrinths are completely different.

The most obvious difference is the type of gate connecting different rooms of the labyrinth:

The Drifter labyrinth uses warp accelerators such as those commonly found among the Empires, derived from Jove technology (although some in the Republic claim they invented this). The Takmahl labyrinth uses small wormhole-like gates, of a type similar to those created by Talocan thermo-electric generators.

Another difference is the layout: the Takmahl labyrinth is set up in three-dimensional space, as shown by my own telemetry, in a roughly triangular form. The gates connecting the different rooms are placed in a planar octagon, with eight gates out of which only a fraction works.

In contrast, the Drifter labyrinth's gate are laid out in a square, with acceleration gates appearing to point in the four cardinal directions of the cluster's plane. There appear to be sixteen rooms, with possible connections as if they are laid out in a four by four square grid. Nevertheless, reports affirm that these structures are in higher-dimensional space, and actually lie on the sixteen corners of a four-dimensional tesseract.

I would have liked to perform my own telemetry on these labyrinths, but they no longer appear, it seems. Apparently, the Drifters are losing their grip on Sanctified Vidette. There have been other reports of changes occuring in that wormhole system. 

I am planning to return in order to investigate, now that the dust has somewhat settled.