Theory of frustration in political networks

Century-old alliances appear to be shifting, or are at least under strain. That is especially worrying for LUMEN, as we have members loyal to two different allied blocs. Traditionally, Caldari and Amarr work together in LUMEN towards common goals. A Minmatar-Caldari rapprochement could change that.

Psychologists and political scientists have been investigating how networks of relations between entities evolve over time. These could be networks of individuals, or networks of corporations in an economic market, or even networks of relations between nations. They have come up with a general description called 'Structural Balance Theory' which is now a workhorse for modelling these relations. 

Like any widely applicable theory, it is a huge simplification of the real world, but which nonetheless captures a certain essential truth about it. So let's have a look.

The central object, the 'atom' of the theory, is the triad. These are groups of three interconnected nodes on the network. Depending on whether the connections are blue (good) or red (bad), there can be four cases:

When all are blue to each other, this is the best situation. Two allies fighting a common enemy is the next best one. All fighting all is a frustrating situation, but even more frustrating is when your two allies are fighting each other. Any network can be given a score based on the breakdown in triads. 

Let's look at possible scenario's between the four core powers:

There are four triads: ACF, AFM, CFM, ACM. In the situation up till now (top left) each triad is of the 'weak balanced' type, so the stability score of the network is +4. That is good, but there can always be a shock, there is always a certain probability that one of these links will flip. Structural balance theory predicts that, as a result, the effects will cascade through the network and change alliances all over, as the network tries to adapt to restore stability.

The shock that we may be heading towards is the Caldari-Minmatar relations turning to blue. This leads to the lower right network in the figure above. It's now become very unstable: the stability score drops precipitously to -4, due to two strongly frustrated triads.

This will lead to a strong pressure for the Caldari and the Minmatar to resolve the frustration of choosing between allies. The most likely outcome, according to structural balance theory, is to break one of their alliances, as this turns the strongly frustrated triads in weak frustrated triads (upper right). The score is raised from -4 to 0. Now, there will arise a new pressure, this time on the Amarr and Gallente. If they flip their relation to blue, then the better score of +4 is achieved (lower right). 

It is a very simple model - and there are many ways it can be made mode complete, for example by allowing also neutral standings rather than just blue and red. Yet even in this simplest version, it is clear that step by step the effects of the Caldari-Minmatar flip percolate through the network. We are indeed witnessing this theoretical model play out in today's realignments of the relations between the empires.

 

OOC source attributions:
Structural balance theory is not fictional, it has been around for a long time. The main sources are
Heider, F. (1946). Attitudes and cognitive organization. Journal of Psychology, 21:107–122.
Cartwright, D. and Harary, F. (1956). Structural balance: A generalization of heider’s theory. Psychological Review, 63(5):277– 293.
Harary, F. (1959). On the measurement of structural balance. Behavioral Science, 4(4):306–323.

No advice

So, I gathered my courage and asked around on the Summit today about good architects for musea. I would think that capsuleers who travel all over the cluster have an opinion about good musea.

They don't.

I've been left none the wiser.

Ghosts from the past

One of the new corp members used to be held by lady Ithiria D. She was the Duchess of Fekhoya before the Khanid King decided differently and had her deposed.

I've worked with the duchess, and acted as her confessor even. But there was always this vague sense that something was very wrong in her estate. That her slaves were used for pleasure, perhaps, rather than guided along a straight path to God. They were wearing very little clothing, and some of them looked quite troubled, saying things like "I've been a bad girl, daddy" while I am a Brother (and not a Father) as anyone trained in the faith should know.

However, I always kept in mind that I am not a Holder, so I should keep my own judgment to myself and trust the decisions of a Holder for their slaves. So, I did not intervene and dismissed my doubts.

But then, after not too long, duchess D. fell from grace and vanished. The estate was abandoned.

And now (is it already almost two years later?) I meet one of her former slaves, who became a capsuleer, and is still looking for God. It feels like an assignment, to rectify a mistake...

design competition

Awaiting further news from Kaztropol, I am starting with the museum. I need to find a good architect, or architectural bureau in order to create a modern museum. With an interplay between the light and the exhibit.

I'm hesitant to ask on the IGS, in the hopes of finding perhaps a renowned Gallente museum architect...

Kaztropol visum

Come ot think of it, I will probably also need some sort of visum or permission to enter from Kaztropol itself. I can imagine they are not to keen to let Amarr clergy on their land. To avoid their more demon-possessed citizens bursting into flames and such.

The problem is that these arch-heretics of course do not have any embassy or consulate where to get such a visum. I may have obtained the MIO's permission and thought that was hard, but it was the easy part...

I've sent a mail to professor Valate to ask her advise on these matters:

<< Dear professor Valate,

Good news! After a procedure that required remarkably little paperwork, I have obtained permission from my local MIO officer for a scholarly visit to Kaztropol and its university, and to you. When would it be suitable for you to receive a visiting scholar?

I can imagine such travel also requires me to get a visum from Kaztropol. But I cannot find any consulate or embassy here. Also, its precise location is not clear to me, I hear it is in Delve? The local tourism office in Mehatoor 24th Imperial Crusade station is unable to provide flight+hotel arrangements so I am planning to come over in my own ship. I do need some advise on what travel documents I need. Does my Anathema need a concord low-emission zone green sticker to land?

Respectfully,
Brother Theodosius >>

The barbarians beyond

Perhaps more than the mud, the journey worries me. Kaztropol is outside the sphere of influence of the Empire. This means I'll have to travel though barbarian systems again. If I am not mistakes, it lies in Delve, where the Blood Raiders took refuge after the good Emperor Doriam chased them from the Bleak Lands. 

The few constellations they control are surrounded by those under the influence of the barbarian kingdom of the Goon's Swarm. I have no idea yet how they can be swayed to offer me safe passage through their lands. But, this could be an opportunity to bring the light of faith to them - through gifts of nuclear reactors and copies of chosen books of Scripture. 

Every little effort that contributes to wrest them from the influence of the Sabik is worthwhile.

Kaztropolitan certified non-toxic safety sports mud

I am reading up on academia in Katztropol - the home of professor Valate, Takmahl expert. 

Apparently, it is not uncommon to settle arguments through mud wrestling. They've even perfected a type of mud for such occasions: Kaztropolitan certified non-toxic safety sports mud. 

The diversity of cultures in our cluster never ceases to amaze me.

Sadly, a cultural faux-pas can be quick to make, unknowingly. Sometimes even top diplomats have a hair-trigger temper when this happens (as I learned today on the IGS). I'm worried I will unwittingly say something offensive to the Katztropolians and be challenged to a mud wrestling fight. 

The stress caused me a sleepless night: I do not know how to wrestle, let alone mud wrestle. I'm too old for this kind of sport. But perhaps I should be training, just in case? The Societas' gym has a capsuleer trainer. I should ask him for advice.

Also, I wonder if the wrestling rules are different for capsuleers. We're all supposed to be heavily augmented, so it would make sense to have special rules. I could not find anything on this topic in the library's documentation on Katztropol...

The go-ahead

Today, I met with our contact person from the Ministry of Internal Order. It's always a pleasure to speak with her! We discussed my research, and how it could be helped by talking to professor Valerie Valate at Katztropol university.

The professor, and the university, and the city, are all part of the Blood Raider heretic cult. So, I needed authorization to proceed and have a conversation with her. And it was approved! 

Science can move forward.

More hands for the ministry

From time to time I help out by interviewing applicants who want to join the Societas. It was a pleasure yesterday to find another member of the clergy. Even though Alaktai is not ordained yet, he is in training for the priesthood.

It would be so very nice to have helping hands for the capsuleer ministry. I hope can I rope in Alaktai for the job...

Contract assigned to you

The guts of this man! Rather than trying to bring in his newest movie via subterfuge and undercover henchmen, Nauplius contracted "Eyes for Faith" directly to the library, five hundred copies!

A delivery courier came, with a pallet full of holoreels. Asked if I could sign it off. I was about to send it all back with the sternest of warnings to the delivery man, but then I realized this is an opportunity to destroy these copies. Over one hundred thousand ISK worth of them. And that is exactly what I did.

Trashing these things so that they cannot be recovered did take a while. And it generated some unpleasant smoke. But it was worth it.

Museum design

Back to my plans for a Takmahl museum. I think I now have a collection large enough to fill it; these expeditions to the Labyrinth were a boon. Now I still need to find a good architect to design the museum.

The architecture should reflect the feeling one gets inside the Labyrinth. It should also convey a stark warning that leaving the Empire leads to doom.

Perhaps I'll write out a design competition for the museum.

Military build-up

So far, so good. No copies of "Eyes for Faith" were found.

The station is getting more busy. Imperial Navy mostly, I think it is a marked increase. I am not surprised, there is a large Imperial research facility in front of the station, and construction is going on for military headquarters for the "Combined Fleet Group Damius".

You can bet that it is named after Emperor Damius III, reclaimer of Pator and enslaver of the Minmatar. And that, in turn, makes the goal of that Combined Fleet Group crystal clear.

I'm not too happy that our home system is becoming the headquarters from which the Empire's efforts in the warzone will be coordinated. Rather than making Mehatoor a safer place, it will make it a more valuable target for terrorists and pirates alike...

Guardians at the gate

In anticipation of trouble, I have asked the library assistants to go around the bookshelves and see if there is no stash of the new sedevacaporn movie hidden anywhere. Also, a double-check of the new acquisitions is being performed. Extra hours at the library, guardians at the gate, but I think we have to be prudent.

Also, I heard rumors about a grey water incident, and a problem with plumbers. You can bet this is another attempt by Faith freaks to gain access to her bath water. That means they are still around. And they will use the library to communicate with each other, like they did previously - that must be stopped.

PG-50

God is testing us again.

A sequel to the "Scent of Faith" appeared. Now it's titled "Eyes for Faith". Again, it is a holoreel made by the sedevacantists.

As usual, the Theology Council will take its time to add it to the index of forbidden works. We just had an update of the index in January, next one will be end of June.

I tried to reach out to a contact that I have in the Theology Council's sub-office for these things, HC-RAS, which stands for Holoreel Content Rating Attribution System. Perhaps this particular movie can be fast-tracked?

After tapping for a while on her keyboard to bring up the information, my contact told me that they were already looking into it, but a preliminary review considered it mostly anti-State, rather than anti-Empire. What! As long as the movie only attacks our allies it is fine? My contact shrugged. 

I think the Empire's stance is hardening on our long-term allies...

I told her that I am certain there will also be heresies in it and probably rants against the Empress. She answered that they will go through it meticulously, scene by scene, and for some scenes, frame by frame. That takes time. A recommendation will be made, she guesses as long as it is just anti-State propaganda it will get PG-50 (Priestly Guidance advised, and viewer must be above 50 years old).

My next attempt to try fast-tracking this was to say that it is inflammatory and hurtful towards a Holder, Faith Griffiths.

Then she answered that the Holder in question is free do forbid it in her Holdings, and that for a wider ban the Holder should petition her liege. 

She said that she would certainly see what she could do to speed up the process. In other words, I was fobbed off.

Acknowledgment

Still reflecting on the past expedition. I am grateful for my crew. Even though it is possible to fly a frigate class ship solo as a capsuleer, it is nice to have crew around. Not just to fulfill various specialized tasks, I realize now, but simply not to be alone out there.

The crew did not have much to do - they are used to man the Indigatrix where most of them assist with its specialized systems for cloaking, probing and scanning. Perhaps I'm still a bit rattled by the kidnap thing, but it was comforting to have them around during the long and uneventful light through labyrinth space. 

Edge of the labyrinth

Over the past few days, I completed my third expedition to the Takmahl labyrinth. 

Previously, I mapped out the spatial structure of the labyrinth which allowed me to identify the most probable spot for a hidden room. This is like mapping a house, and seeing that there's a room-shaped black spot somewhere in the map. Except, this time the most likely spot was at the edge of the house.

The distance, some 54000 km from the nearest point that is accessible via the ancient warp accelerators, appeared quite daunting, so I had to obtain a custom-built frigate that could take me at high-speed, cap-stable. The ship, baptized the "Velocitas" worked out well beyond expectations.

What I discovered, is that there is some sort of space-time wall between 25000 and 30000 km out of the nearest ring of ancient warp acceletors. Space "inside" of the labyrinth is contained in a blood-red cloud, with huge pillars of fire emerging from time to time. These plasma geysers generate jets thousands of kilometers tall. 

However, when you cross the wall, you are thrown back into "regular" space near the Aphi sun, in surroundings not different from when you just warp to sun. The crossing is one-way: I tried to turn back but did not find myself back in labyrinth space. Perhaps there was a way to return, but I could not find a way to navigate to something that I could no longer see in scans. I should have left more drones.

This means there is no hidden pocket where I guessed it to be. I now conjecture that each room in the labyrinth is centered around a gate complex, and has a sphere of influence of 25-30 thousand kilometers.

This gives a map that does not have interior "black zones". There are some irregularities: sites 3,4,8,9 may have been added to the labyrinth at a later time, or have moved somewhat over the centuries. But overall, the labyrinth forms a rather contiguous volume of space, in which I no longer suspect hidden rooms.

Next expedition

I returned to the planning of the next expedition. It is a plan with a low chance of success but a high potential reward: the search for a hidden room in the labyrinth. Perhaps I can combine it with exploration of the fire pillars that can be observed there, since I'm using a fast craft. 

I did plan to use disposable drones again, but I think I'll make sure to pick them up afterwards this time.

I was pleased by the encouraging words of prof. Valate. She'd noticed incursions in the labyrinth - as a Takmahl expert she must be keeping tabs on what is going on there. Initially alerted by these incursions, she was content to find out it was just me poking around, and expressed her trust in my methods. This reminded me I should consult the Societas' MIO overseer to see how I could collaborate scientifically with her.

Ascetics

A bit of rest after a violent abduction does miracles. During this rest, I've been reading about the lives of the ascetic saints. They renounced both the pleasures and toils of life. 

I do believe in purifying the body via fasting in order to purify the soul. But these saints went to extremes. They practiced self-mortification, refusing food and laying down to meditate and pray continuously. They went to the desert so be removed from outside stimuli, such as the sounds and smells of the city. Many of them miraculously stayed alive despite not eating for years, clearly a proof that they were in God's grace (although disbelievers often claim they were secretly nibbling on insects or dry bread).

I imagine they would have enjoyed the situation I found myself in, being able to devote themselves fully to prayer. Perhaps somewhere there are still ascetics who practice this way... the cluster is a vast place. But it is not for me, I know now. I prefer to interact with my fellow humans.

Abduction - part 2

 (continued from January 30th)

I woke up in the corvette, in restraints. I remember the kidnappers arguing. Two of their co-conspirators had been shot by station security, and some of the remaining kidnappers were panicking and wanted to blow off the whole thing. They argued viciously among each other, and in the end decided to go through with their plan anyway. They took some video, I guess for some propaganda campaign, and sedated me again. 

The next time that I woke up, I was tied to a medbay bed, and hooked up to some equipment and infuses to keep me alive for probably a long time. I was in a space grave, left for dead but unable to die, floating somewhere far away from any traffic lane or station. I had to suppress a bit of panic attack.

After what seemed (and perhaps was) hours, I managed to free myself from my restraints, and remove the medical equipment I was attached to. I explored the ship, only to find its equipment completely burned out, the comms unoperational, and no navigation. Life support worked, and there was water and some food on board. There was nothing left to do but wait and trust in my friends, while praying and meditating.

Meanwhile, Aria Jenneth, the Directrix's assistant, had been on the case without delay. She did not need many clues to figure out what had happened. The death threat note was clear. The station's logs were screened for ships leaving soon after the abduction. A corvette that suspiciously seems to miss a lot of essential equipment drew her attention.

Less than a day after the abduction, a small LUMEN fleet consisting of Aria, Velarra and Maria freed me. They probed down my location and remote repaired the ship enough so its warp engine could bring me back to station.  The only obstacle remaining were some explosive charges with which the entrance hatch to the Corvette were rigged, but that did not pose a difficult task for the technicians. 

My ordeal was over in less than 24 hours. The surviving perpetrators are still unaccounted for... Physically I am fine, somewhat bruised. Mentally, I must admit I am still shaken by what happened. I'll take my coffee at Gottin's lamp for a while I think.

Abduction - part 1

So, where to start? Perhaps with a summary: the death threat note I received a week ago was not a joke. I've been left for dead in a space grave, and subsequently rescued by the gracious heroes of LUMEN.

Violent extremists can find very diverse causes to call their own. In the case of my tormentors, they were  elements from a group that believes that even the lowly AI of a drone is sentient enough that it should be given similar rights as humans. I had angered them by using drones as disposable tools, mere space markers, to measure the distances in the Takmahl labyrinth. I have not bothered to pick up the drones afterwards, the labyrinth being a deadly place.

These hoodlum paired up with other extremists, belonging to a cult that believes all capsuleers are abominations, parodies of human beings, and way too over-privileged. So, capsuleers according to them should be eradicated and outlawed. 

I do not know how these two groups met, perhaps there are bars where aggressive extremists meet up. I imagine one of them shouting "they should be abandoned in space too so they know how it feels!" And another answering "Yeah, let's give it to them!" and a third one saying "I know how to do it."

Station security thinks that at least one of them must be a technician involved in the station's "Board-My-Corvette" program. Most stations have such a program: they hand out corvettes for free to any capsuleer. Probably to boost the traffic and income generated by having capsuleers visit the station. But this perk must also have been a thorn in the side of the anti-capsuleer cult. Wealth and resources that could be direly needed elsewhere are just handed out to capsuleers at their whim. 

They appropriated and then sabotaged one of the many "Board-My-Corvette" ships accumulating dust in storage. 

They must have known, or have been tipped, that I like to take coffee at the Café Marlinea. Luna had the bad luck to be around just at the time my kidnappers appeared. We were mugged, I was stunned by some device and have no idea what happened next. Luna, not prepared for any trouble, got a nasty whack from a steel rod. Thank God she was not severely injured. Security was relatively quick to show up, but still not fast enough to prevent my abduction.

Recalling all this saddens and tires me - perhaps I need a bit more time to recover from the ordeal. I'll continue the log tomorrow.

(to be continued)